National Generators Forum emissions study

Hansard: 28 February 2007 ASSEMBLY

Mr CLARK (Box Hill) — I congratulate the National Generators Forum and CRA International on their recent publication of the document Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Policies for the Australian Electricity Sector. This study does some of the hard work necessary to assess what is required to achieve a large reduction in the level of greenhouse gases emitted by the Australian electricity industry. This willingness to do the hard work and to publish a thorough and detailed report is in stark contrast to the Bracks government, which is more interested in posturing and political stunts than in actually taking effective action on emission levels, despite emission controls being a state government responsibility.

The National Generators Forum has modelled a wide range of possible emission reductions from the electricity sector, including achieving a level of 96 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per annum by 2050, which is less than half of the approximately 210 million tonnes expected to be produced in 2010 and an 80 per cent reduction in the projected level of unconstrained 2050 emissions. Based on the assumptions made, the study concludes that a 96 million tonne emission level by 2050 could be achieved optimally at a resource cost 23 per cent higher than with unconstrained emissions, or 30 per cent higher without nuclear energy, and that similar emission levels could be achieved by 2050 with a CO2 price of $40 a tonne.

The study also found that policies that tried to impose particular technological solutions incurred incremental costs up to four times higher than achieving the same level of CO2 reduction without restricting technology choice.

The findings of the study are heavily dependent on its assumptions, especially that successful carbon capture and storage technology can be developed and deployed.